The commercial rationale for cross-border mergers (in banking) remains a little tenuous and the evidence is not conclusive that cost and revenue synergies can be achieved.

With earnings so strong for the time being, there is pressure for money to be deployed either in share buybacks or special dividends or to go out and spend it.

If a big French bank and a big British tank were talking of a merger, there would be scope for things to go awry if it's not clear who is running it.

One motivation that could be at the back of European minds is the danger of the American banks coming in.

So far there has been no doubt about who is taking over and who is running the show. It means that execution risk is kept at reasonably low levels.